The The new 2024-25 UEFA Champions League arrives in Ecuador In the group stage. The 36 clubs have already played their First four matches And although the script is still far from finished, many are starting to draw Calculator for calculating And provide estimates about his near future in the competition when the qualifying round comes. Proceed that it is not simple, but in Marka we will try to shed some light.
We remember: the The top eight qualifiers go straight to the knockout stages, While From the 9th to the 24th place , they will have to play the so-called double-elimination playoffs (About sixteen quarter-finals). The winners will join the already qualified and the classic format will start from the eighth with the top 16. This is how the crossings will be today.
Before the start of the competition, Pyotr Klimek, specialist in mathematics In Football rankings, Predicted how the qualification for the Champions League will look like in its first stage by advanced statistics, thus presenting two key figures that can serve as a reference at this stage. The minimum amount of The points to be obtained in the top eight will be approximately 14.87, While for To reach the top 24 and, therefore, to secure the playoffs, It will be from 9,87.
Now, The club that represents the last place in the playoffs is PSV Eindhoven-which has 5 points- And outside there will be, to this day, clubs like PSaint-Germain, Stuttgart, Girona or RB Leipzig. With this mathematical estimate and the remaining 12 points to be played, we analyze the team by Team Spanish calendars and their options for survival in the competition.
FC Barcelona.
Barcelona is the one that has the best to get straight to the knockout stages. Now those of Flick has 9 points , she is the sixth They will be roughly classified according to advanced statistics. With a point they ‘guarantee’ to play at least the playoffs.
As for staying between Top eight, With the 14.87 points as an estimated figure, The belograna group He must win 2 of the 4 games he has left. Thus they add 15 points, and according to Sports reports, that will be enough.
They left: Brest (House), Borussia Dortmund (Outside), Benfica (Outside) and Atalanta (House).
Red Star 2-5 Barcelona
Real Madrid.
Now those of Ancelotti They are in a delicate situation, especially thinking about qualifying for the knockout stages. To get into the playoffs, a priori and taking into account the work of the UEFA mathematician, with a win and a draw in the remaining four matches, he will be in the top 24 (He will add 10 points for an estimated 9.87).
L Getting into the top eight, Whites must improve their existing records to reach a number 15 points. That means, Win 3 of the remaining 4.
It fits: Liverpool (Outside), Atalanta (Outside), Salzburg (House) and Brest (Outside).
Real Madrid 1-3 Milan
An athlete.
The Los Rojiblancos scenario is similar to the Los Blancos scenario, since they have the same points, although the asterisk in the calendar is always different for both. With A win and a draw should be enough not to be eliminated To the first change.
L Getting into the top eight, Rojiblancos should imagine finishing the regular league with 15 points, which means Win at least 3 of 4 duels That they have in front
It fits: Sparta Prague (Outside), Slovan Bratislava (House), Leverkusen (Home) and Salzburg (away).
Paris Saint-Germain 1-2 Atletico
Girona.
Those of Emtchel They are the most complicated Spanish team to enter , at least, in the playoffs. They have only 3 points, So the thought of getting into the top eight is practically a utopia (They will need to win all the matches, thereby adding 15 points in total).
Being in the Playoffs And their elimination will not fall by the way, at least, Win two matches and draw another. Thus They will score 10 points This, according to this study, would be enough for them to fight to move to the eights.
It fits: Sturm Graz (Outside), Liverpool (House), Milan (Outside) and Arsenal (House).
